Views from Phanfare CEO and Co-founder Andrew Erlichson
«
»

Link Apple is currently selling 20,000 iPads per hr – $10MM/hour

We just bought two iPads, about 30 minutes apart. Our order IDs are 10,000 apart. Assuming those order IDs are sequential, and they appear to be, then Apple is selling 20,000 iPads per hour. Assuming most orders are for the $499 model, and that people are only buying 1 per order, that means Apple is selling $10MM/hour. Of course that is not sustainable, but if they did it for a year, it would be $87.6B.

Now, of course, we can’t be sure every order was for an iPad. Apple does sell other stuff. But at 830am in the morning on the east coast, my guess is that most of the orders were for iPads.

This also means that Apple will sell out of all devices built in the initial manufacturing run sometime this week.

This product will change consumer computing.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 12th, 2010 at 10:26 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site.

  • alanpgh
    By the way, I just remembered your post about iPads that made it everywhere on the net.

    But, I still have a question about any special plans for the iPad from Phanfare. Having slideshows look like they do in Flash on a PC or Mac would be great! Any plans for use of HTML5?

    Thanks for any comments!

    Alan
  • alanpgh
    Andrew: I'm surprised there is no mention of the iPad and HTML5 for slideshows on the iPad. Any thoughts on this are appreciated?

    Thanks,
    Alan
  • Chris Fischer
    http://www.businessinsider.com...


    This link clearly expresses why I think Andrew is wrong on iPad goodness.
  • People keep saying that the iPad and iPhone are closed platforms, but the
    reality is that you can become a developer for $100/yr and hack them all you
    want, including putting ad-hoc aps on them. Apple's control is only exerted
    when you want them to distribute your software. Overall, I think apple's
    model works for the consumer, which is why they are having so much success.

    Long term, android might be a bigger deal, but it will be based on apple's
    early innovation.
  • I agree with the business insider ipad rant, it is a dreadful machine. Just for consumers who want to consume media and have no part in production or creation of media. It is retrograde, to me it is like carrying around a tv, you are better off wasting your money on a modern phone.
  • faceboy
    Couldn't we find out if the order numbers are sequential by having a few people correlate purchases to "click" at the same time, then compare numbers? Seems like a rather simple thing that would really improve (or completely disprove) the estimate
  • faceboy
    Couldn't a few people figure out if the order numbers are sequential by just correlating purchases to happen at the exact same time, then compare the numbers? Seems like a simple solution that would really help such estimates.
  • In a fast moving system, it might be hard to create simultaneous events.
    Plus, two orders being sequential does not prove that all order numbers are
    sequential. the gaps could be random.
  • JamesKatt
    20,000 iPads an hour is a phenomenal rate.

    It means Apple will sell 175.2 MILLION iPads a year. This would be more than the 75 million iPhones and iPod Touches it has thus far sold in 3 years.

    It means Apple will make 105.12 BILLION in new revenue a year.

    Obviously, 20,000 iPads an hour is an unsustainable rate.

    But if Apple can sustain even a fraction of this rate, it means a HUGE increase in revenue and a whole new market for itself.

    WOW!

    I'm glad I just purchased more Apple stock!
  • Oberon123
    I hadn't read that the sales would start at 8:30 am, so I waited up until Midnight, only to find that the sales site was still down. You'd better believe I was in front of my computer at 8:30 am on the 12th (after finding out that was the time on the East Coast that I could buy one) and had my order in for a 64 G WiFi + 3G iPad, a case, and a keyboard by 8:35 AM. I'm having it delivered so I can avoid the lines at the store. I don't see any reason to stand in line for hours when I can be comfortable at home.
  • Jonathan Foulkes
    Totally agree it will change the face of computing.

    We ordered one first thing as well, and it will substitute a laptop that was used for casual computing (surfing, reading email via RDP, etc.)

    It also makes a heck a remote control for the home theater ;-)
  • great trick to drive traffic to your site, there's no way in hell that estimate is even close to accurate, apple has hundreds of SKU's and you have no idea how many sales they make on an average day.
  • Name
    Um... Apple sells a LOT more than iPads, and order numbers cover absolutely everything sold via the Apple Online Store. Stop being overly dramatic.
  • Other reports say that Apple typically does 15,000 orders per day through
    their site. Assuming a uniform distribution, that's 625/hour, so it does not
    change the number much.

    Additionally, my guess is that peak order traffic generally occurs when the
    US is mostly awake. At 830am, its too early in the central, mountain and
    western time zones for people to be ordering much.

    The main potential flaw in the argument is not that Apple sells more than
    iPads, but that the order numbers may not be sequential or fully populated.
    But my guess is that the numbers are approximately sequential and that the
    estimate was fairly accurate.

    Estimation works surprisingly well on many problems.
  • Mobu
    I think it could be more. I bought 7 iPads (2 wifi 64gb, 2 wifi 32gb, 1 wifi 16gb, and 2 3G 64gb) for myself and family who are overseas all in one order. I'm sure I'm not the only person to have ordered a few in one order. In fact, there could have been a single order for 12 iPads (2 of each of the possible 6 configurations).
  • The site says they limit the orders to 2 per customer..not enforced?
  • Mobu
    It's 2 of a single configuration per customer. You can test it by putting multiple iPads in your cart and if you try to order 3 it will stop you. But 2 of each should be fine.
  • asaasa
    The order numbers are for ALL te products, ALL the orders. No only ipads
  • Correct, as I stated in my analysis, which was done at 9am, the assumption
    is that the vast majority of orders were for iPads. It's just an estimate.
    But I bet its not off by an order of magnitude.
  • Snapper02
    Unfortunately the general public won't want to download an app to view a video posted to a blog or website.
  • If you view Phanfare on an iPhone or iPod touch today in Safari, we provide
    a mobile version that does show the videos within the Quicktime player.
  • Snapper02
    Hey Andrew, now how about rapping Phanfare around h.264 and html5 so that when the new standard gets going we will be able to use the iPad and iPhone on Phanfare.
  • We already have an iPhone app that we plan to update for the iPad. It plays
    our video, which is encoded in h.264 and our musical slideshows.
  • follower
    So you assume that Apple has dedicated online sales system that tracks only iPad sales. I don't think so :)
  • I think the iPad has already changed consumer thinking about computing. Co-workers who are not very computer literate are excited about the iPad. It's kind of weird hearing them discussing the iPad and that they can barely wait to get one.
  • gizmosandi
    Many retailers also very quick to put out iPad cases. Quirky just announced the creation of Cloak. Looks to be a very functional & cool case. I love the color options. Check it out. http://j.mp/dp4sRv
  • gizmosandi
    Many retailers also very quick to put out iPad cases. Quirky just announced the creation of Cloak. Looks to be a very functional & cool case. I love the color options. Check it out. http://j.mp/dp4sRv
  • joeplace
    That's a lot of total guess assumptions to make to justify your probably misleading title.
  • It's just a guess. But I would bet it won't be far off. My order number had
    a W in front of it. BTW, I am not a journalist and this is not meant to be
    more than speculation. This is a blog, not the NY Times. In any event, the
    number shipped within the first hour is not much of a predictor for how many
    will be sold within any longer period of time.
  • johninco
    I just bought two of them myself. One was the wifi and the other was wifi and 3G both at 64G. We have two iPod touches in the family so I got these solely based on a larger screen.
  • alanpgh
    I also bought 2 during the first hour of sales!
    Bought 64G+3G models.

    Can't wait 'til the iPads arrive!

    I think the sales will be much higher than estimated.

    Also, I understand they will run multiple apps simultaneously when iPad OS 4 is released this summer.

    Great!
  • iPad=Netbook_Killer
    It sure seems unlikely that Apple could be selling 20,000 iPads an hour since I can't imagine that many people would buy it without even testing one. I'm certain the iPad will be a hit with consumers, but I think it will take months after the release when consumers can go into the stores and actually try one out. I can understand Apple loyalists wanting an iPad but many will wait for favorable reviews and such. I'm happy if you're right about all those pre-orders, but that quantity of 20,000 an hour just seems to good to be true. If it is, Apple will have a huge jump on other tablet manufacturers. It will be follow the leader all over again as it was for the iPhone.
  • One reason is developers. The most money you make as a developer is when the app store is new and there is not much competition. So there is a bit of a gold rush to have the device first before others think of your idea or penetrate your niche.

    I'm a developer and I'm ordering one. My only disappointment is that I can't get the 3G version because I need one right away.

    D
  • No, I could see thousands of people buying it without trying it, simply based on the hype. People are familiar enough with the iPhone and iTouch, so I think Apple has built up a reputation already with consumers.
blog comments powered by Disqus

    Back to Phanfare blog home »

© 2007-8 Phanfare, Inc.